When people think of shortages in products made in China, they often think of sneakers and toys. However, many ‘Made in USA’ products also depend heavily on Chinese components and raw materials.
Here are a few examples:
· Nutritional supplements like ascorbic acid (Vitamin C), magnesium citrate, glucosamine, creatine, and amino acids are mostly produced in China.
· Industrial chemicals like titanium dioxide and other specialty pigments — key for paints and coatings — largely originate from China.
· Pharmaceutical ingredients such as Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) for antibiotics, antivirals, and common generics (like ibuprofen and acetaminophen) are heavily reliant on Chinese production.
· Even pet food ingredients often come from Chinese suppliers.
U.S. Retailers’ Deep Dependence on China
Major U.S. retailers remain heavily reliant on goods manufactured in China. A sizable portion of their inventory — often entire categories of merchandise — either originates directly in China or includes critical Chinese-sourced components.
Inventory on Hand: How Long Will It Last?
Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) shows how long, on average, a retailer holds products before selling them:
When Will We Start Seeing Empty Shelves?
Assuming major retailers halted or sharply reduced new orders from China following the April 2, 2025 tariff announcement, and factoring in stock levels plus in-transit inventory, here’s a rough estimate of when serious stock-outs may begin:
Recent West Coast port data supports this outlook: By May 3, 2025, weekly vessel arrivals from China dropped 29% week-over-week and 44% year-over-year, with container volumes falling from 120,000 TEUs to 62,000 TEUs. Additionally, new port fees on Chinese-built vessels are intensifying the pressure.
Why This Isn’t Like COVID
During COVID-19, supply chain breakdowns were partially masked by massive consumer demand, fueled by:
Government stimulus checks Direct cash transfers PPP loans and easy credit
Today’s situation is very different:
- Tighter liquidity, Potential layoffs
- Weaker consumer confidence
- No stimulus cushion.
Small and medium businesses, which thrived during COVID, will now be squeezed.
What Businesses Are Doing — and Why It Will Take Time to Realign
1. Many companies believe the administration is aware of these challenges and will eventually reverse course, so they are currently standing by.
2. Some businesses are actively relocating production by moving Chinese components, materials, and sub-assemblies to other countries to achieve a new ‘Made in [Country]’ designation. Several manufacturers we have spoken to indicate that this realignment will take a minimum of six months to a year.
3. Others, recognizing that relocation isn’t feasible for all products, are planning gradual cost increases should tariffs persist.
Now is the time to pick up the phone and reconnect. As Andy Grove, former Intel CEO, famously said: Bad companies are destroyed by crisis. Good companies survive. Great companies are improved by it.